The 2020 Presidential Election is set to be the most expensive and most soughtly contended of all time. The incumbent has spent the past four years in the White House after a shock victory in 2016. His opponent, a veteran politician and the right-hand man of Obama, is projected, by most major pundits and news outlets to be the forty-sixth President of the United States, and by a comfortable margin. The Economist's election forecast data, predicts, as of the 29th of October, that Biden will win the Electoral College with 350 votes to Trump's 188. FiveThirtyEight has projected a 347-191 victory for Biden.
With respect to the noteworthy events of the year thus far, Invenire predicts a 279 to 259 victory for Trump (270 Electoral College votes are required to win the Presidency). In particular, Invenire believes that Trump will retain the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, despite it being Biden's home state.
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| Map-maker courtesy of 270towin.com |
Once considered to be a reliable Republican state, Arizona has experienced a leftward shift in recent years. Demographic trends, namely immigration, saw Phoenix, the state's largest city, elect a Democrat to the mayoralty. Nevertheless, Invenire believes that Arizona has not swung leftwards enough to reject Trump.
Florida
Florida is often considered to be a bellwether in presidential elections. In six of the past seven elections, the winner of the Sunshine State has gone on to take the Presidency. If Trump is to take Florida, as we have predicted, it will largely be due to the fervent support of Cuban-Americans in the region. Although it is almost certain that Miami-Dade county will vote blue, Cubans in the area will be instrumental in any Trump victory over Florida.
Georgia
Considering Georgia's large non-white population, it is surprising to some that it is still a red state. Allegations of voter suppression have been flung in this state's politics, with some suggesting that it prevented Stacey Abrams from winning the state's gubernatorial election in 2018. However, the riots that unfolded after the killing of Rayshard Brooks in June will only have bolstered support for the "law and order" campaign that Trump has often touted. Images of chaos in a Democrat-run city are perfect propaganda for the Trump campaign - elect more Democrats, see more destruction.
Michigan
Michigan has been the centre of much political tension this year. In April, the State Capitol was stormed by armed protestors in disobedience of lockdown rules; more recently, six men were arrested in an attempt to kidnap Governor Whitmer, the controversial Democrat who ordered for such lockdown rules. Despite this, Invenire does not believe that Trump's base is large enough to win here. In response to the 2009 recession, the Obama-Biden administration rescued many large automobile manufacturers, corporations that have traditionally been the beating heart of the Michigan economy. As a result of this, Biden is popular amongst union workers here, making it likely for him to win the state.
Minnesota
Minnesota has long been a stalwart supporter of the Democratic Party; the last time it went red was for Richard Nixon in 1972. It was also, notably, the only state to vote against Ronald Reagan in his landslide 1984 victory. Given its seemingly solid electoral history, it might be surprising that it is considered a swing state. On the contrary, elections here have been getting tougher. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by less than two percentage points.
It is difficult to tell how Minnesota will vote, given the context of the times. In May, the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis acted as a genesis for anti-police protests nationwide. Will the event turn out the angry, anti-police left, or the conservative base, desperate for security? We have opted with the former, though we would not be surprised if Minnesota pulled the lever for Trump.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, Biden's home state, was won unexpectedly by Trump in 2016. Invenire predicted it would revert to the Democratic candidate this year, once more. In stark contrast, recent riots in Philadelphia will only have cemented pro-Trump sentiment in the state. A state momentarily unsure of itself this election cycle is bound to stick to the candidate who promises law and order, rather than the one who flirts with police abolitionists.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin will go blue, for no other reason than it has no reason to go red. It has not had any major riots, nor any major internal political issues, and for that reason, it will pull the leader for the Democrat, as all union states usually do.
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