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Black Friday: A Story, Sales and Stocks

Black Friday has come and gone. The day following America's national holiday of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, is traditionally the day of the year on which retailers offer the largest discounts to consumers, with large price cuts on a wide variety of products. The holiday has a long, illustrious tradition, with a variety of stories as to how it began, including the slave trade.

The term was first used in September 1869, to describe the financial crisis that occurred after two Wall Street financiers attempted to buy as much of America's gold as possible, in the hope that prices would rise, leaving them with a large profit. The two men, Jay Gould and Jim Fisk, failed in this attempt. The earliest use of the term "Black Friday", as we know it, originated in the city of Philadelphia. It was used by police officers to describe the chaos that ensued, as tourists and shoppers travelled to the city for the weekend's Army-Navy American football game. It was only in the 1980s that the holiday was commercialised by retailers.

In this report, I will aim to analyse the affect of the American holiday on markets in the UK, by studying consumer patterns and the stock market. According to the Office for National Statistics, in 2017, in the last three months of the year, spending increased by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarter. The ONS described November 2017's sales as "strong", senior statistician, Rhlan Murphy, explained that this was likely because of Black Friday, and its twin holiday, Cyber Monday. Before Black Friday, reports claimed that Interest in purchasing an item this Black Friday would be almost identical to that of last year; an analysis by Barclaycard found that consumers were buying more items but spending less; perhaps, an indication that there are larger discounts this year than in previous years. Studies by McKinsey and Company and PricewaterhouseCoopers report more enthusiasm by customers in nations across the world. The spread of enthusiasm across the world is likely because of the internet.

This week, the week leading up to this year's Black Friday, the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 (FTSE 100) has been on a downward trend, a surprising occurrence given that Black Friday deals often last for entire weeks. This is in continuation of a downward trend experienced for an entire month. The FTSE 350 has followed a similar pattern, alongside worldwide markets such as the New York Stock Exchange. The markets will, given their erratic nature, likely increase in value.

This is my analysis of this year's Black Friday sales. I look forward to seeing if my predictions were correct. Please feel free to leave suggestions for future article topics.




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